Cognitive Dissonance and "Doublethink"

Greetings from the Left Coast, where we here at Left Coast Blues do the heavy thinking for those who just can’t be bothered.

Psychologists speak of a concept called “cognitive dissonance.” It’s the uncomfortable feeling caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously. For example, it is known that smoking causes lung cancer, and, arguably, most smokers want just as much as anyone else to live a long and healthy life. So the act of smoking is dissonant with the desire to live a long life. Humans generally relieve this kind of discomfort by rationalization. ("Only a few smokers actually develop lung cancer, and they're generally much heavier smokers than I am.") People who are very, very good at this kind of rationalization can take it to the next level: “doublethink.”

This term, coined by George Orwell in his famous novel, 1984, is described as, “The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.” Some people have an amazing ability to perform this mental trick, which Orwell further describes as “controlled insanity.” As Exhibit A, I give you Warren Buffett, America’s “Billionaire Next Door,” and the thoughts he shared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on March 9. If you didn’t catch the program, you can still get the transcript and view the videos on the Internet, and I would encourage you to do so, because most of what you’re about to read was not widely reported.

Now, Warren Buffett is a pretty smart guy in a lot of ways. He is, at least, smart enough to have made one whole heck of a lot more money than, say, your humble correspondent. But Mr. Buffett is still human, and appears to have a remarkable talent for doublethink.

He clearly believes that the current recession is an “economic Pearl Harbor” (his term), and that we are in an economic war that requires decisive action. He believes the American people are confused and fearful, and that the government must send a very clear message, and that “The only authoritative voice in the United States who says, ‘This is what we’re going to do, this is what we’re not going to do’…is the president of the United States.”

Unfortunately, he acknowledges that “we’ve had…muddled messages, and the American public does not know…what’s going on and their reaction, then, is to absolutely pull back.”

He also takes issue with the general way that the Democrats have been behaving: “…if you’re in a war, and we really are in an economic war, there’s an obligation to the majority to behave in ways that don’t go around inflaming the minority…when Roosevelt convened Congress to have a vote on the war, he didn’t say, ‘I’m throwing in about 10 of my pet projects,’ and you didn’t have congress people putting on 8,000 earmarks onto the declaration of war in 1941…I don’t think anybody on December 7 would have said a ‘war is a terrible thing to waste, and therefore we’re going to try and ram through a whole bunch of things and – but we expect to – expect the other party to unite behind us on the – on the big problem.’”

On staying focused, he said: “…I would absolutely say for the – for the interim, till we get this one solved, I would not be pushing a lot of things that are…contentious, and…I also would do no finger-pointing whatsoever…I would not say, you know, ‘George’ – ‘the previous administration got us into this’…I think, on balance, we ought to defer most of the things that cause people to get very riled up…I think the message ought to continuously be, ‘We are in an economic war. We’re going to solve this together. We’re not going to use it as a way to get all kinds of changes made.’”

On the stimulus bill: “…the stimulus plan’s going to take a long time to kick in…the stimulus plan is part of the recovery, but it’s not the most – it’s important to put it in, but there’s other things that need to be done now to restore confidence…There are things that need to be done up front that actually are more important. But I’m still in favor of having a stimulus bill.”

When asked about President Obama openly criticizing the use of corporate jets by CEOs, Mr. Buffett defended his own use of a private jet, and said that his company has been better off for it. Furthermore, “I think it’s a big mistake to start demonizing anybody in this game.”

On the “card check” legislation that would do away with secret balloting in union certification elections: “I think the secret ballot’s pretty important in the country. You know, I’m against card check, to make a perfectly flat statement…I think card check is a mistake.”

On the proposed “cap and trade” legislation: “Anything you put in that effectively taxes carbon emissions is – somebody’s going to bear the brunt of it. In the case of a regulated utility, the utility customers are going to pay for it…But that tax is probably going to be pretty regressive.” He goes on to say that, “our own guys at MidAmerican Energy…generally do not lean in favor of cap and trade.”

But yet on President Obama himself he says: “I think that the Republicans have an obligation to regard this as an economic war and to realize you need one leader and, in general, support of that…I voted for Obama and I strongly support him, and I think he’s the right guy…”

What? Let me get this straight – you think we’ve been getting muddled messages from the administration, you’re opposed to the way the Democrats have been treating the Republicans, you’re opposed to all the pet projects and earmarks that have been hooked onto the recent legislation, you don’t think we should be pushing ahead with a lot of other “contentious” issues until we have the economy straightened out, you don’t think we should be pointing fingers at the previous administration, you think there are other things that were more important than a stimulus bill and that the stimulus bill is going to take a long time to kick in, you don’t agree with Obama’s criticism of CEO’s use of private jets, you don’t agree on the card check legislation, but you strongly support Obama and think the Republicans should fall in line behind his leadership? You disagree with dang near everything he’s trying to do!

That, dear reader, is classic doublethink.

Thanks for listening.